Futures Market Declines as Downstream Stockpiling Slightly Increases Before the Holiday [SMM Spot Aluminum Midday Review]

Published: Jan 6, 2025 13:00
[SMM Spot Aluminum Midday Review: Futures Market Declines, Downstream Stockpiling Slightly Increases Before the Holiday]

This morning, the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract fluctuated downward to below the daily moving average, around 19,580 yuan/mt. In the spot market, east China saw downstream restocking at lower prices due to the decline in absolute prices. However, under the influence of the off-season, transactions only slightly improved compared to last Friday, in line with expectations. SMM A00 aluminum ingot prices were on par with the SHFE aluminum 2501 contract, unchanged from the previous trading day. SMM A00 aluminum ingot prices recorded 19,630 yuan/mt, down 220 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

In the central China market, most traders faced a significant drop in absolute prices and showed a strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes, while downstream buyers restocked at lower prices, mainly for rigid demand. The price spread between Henan and Shanghai narrowed to a discount of around 80 yuan/mt. SMM Central China A00 aluminum ingot prices recorded 19,550 yuan/mt, down 210 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, with actual market transactions at a premium of around 10 yuan/mt over SMM Central China prices, unchanged from last Friday.

Regarding inventory, SMM's weekly inventory in major aluminum consumption regions recorded 49.5 mt, up 8,000 mt WoW. As the off-season deepens, market consumption gradually weakens, outflows from warehouses decline, and the inventory buildup turning point is approaching. Regional premiums and discounts are expected to turn downward.

Data source: SMM

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Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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